— we are going into meltdown:
(again such a huge text part, but it's still too early to photograph the carcasses of the upcoming melt-down. That will come at the end of this year. So stay tuned ...)
First came Austerity in 2008, then came CoVid and soon comes the debt which will lead to a ruinous recession or a European Union, even the world and its societies so debt-laden that they all will be at the mercy of the ‘moneymen’ for decades to come, - also in "communist" China.
The government will have no choice but to practically nationalise the economy. In about two months time, half of all the airline operators in the world will be insolvent and so will overseas shipping companies. This will effect supply chains, which will cause factories to close which will cause growing numbers of workers to struggle to secure their livelihoods and pay the bills as the economic consequences of each broken link in the chain unravels.
It’s already clear, many will be told to go home without pay, many more will lose their jobs. Then, in another three months local pubs, shops and small businesses will shut by the summer, forget about revenues coming from tourism, so also “re-creational” regions will stutter like a broken motor.
Tax revenues will fall as companies will fail to pay quarterly VAT bills or any other tax bills. Finance ministries will be unable to react as they are swamped with requests for delayed payments. Crucially, they won’t be able to demand payment either.
With the autumn the economy will have entered a recession. Estimates from economists are already replicating a 15 per cent in GDP by the year end. The government will provide low-cost loans, insurance to employers, lost income payments to employees and all kind of tricky interventions to make it look like it is in control.
Laws will be changed and most of national governments will be able to wield as much power as China’s president. Police will be given new legal capabilities and the mainstream media will be co-opted to fall into line.
For two years whistleblowers, journalists and editors will face personal problems for publishing any leaked documents (as Assange, Snowdon and many others do already now)all to keep the public in the dark on matters relating to coronavirus infections and deaths and other matters, which will still leak through social media.
The national debt in EU countries is already an 71% per cent of GDP in Germany and 171 % in Greece… The recent budget will mean the EU will be facing its national debts at in the trillions by 2024 (without the additional billions for the coronavirus stimulus packages with no prospect of doing anything but continuing to rise for years to come.
The debt-interest service cost will this zero interests ECB means the average nation in Europe may have to pay a billion per week… And better not getting started with private household debt which is already at a record high, - set to explode over the next twelve months. Unsecured debt will see two spikes, the first will be the scale of new loans, the second will be the scale of defaults. Car loans last year were already staggering and many will default this year.
So will corporate debt get out of control. It has risen by 75 per cent since 2011. Many listed companies used surplus cash to buy back their own shares to inflate the price in order that executives got paid more.
To add to the loading, the global economy is slowing, meaning less demand for manufactured goods and services. Trump’s trade wars are completely silly and don’t help of course. To take up the slack the government will start rapidly spending, even going as far as printing more money and as the ECB base rate is reduced, fiscal rules are loosened – borrowing will increase, defaults will follow as will bailouts.
As the fog of the coronavirus crisis clears later in the year and we are still burying its victims many people will come to realise what is really unfolding. Austerity undermined the proper functioning of society and COVID has all but destroyed the economy, loading heavy debts over all sectors.
Right now the money men are running for the hills – the Euro has plunged in value against the USD, but the US$ is basically worthless if you see the debt mountain of 23 Trillion due to the senseless wars waged.
To put it simple: It’s the sign of an economy staring over the cliff and ready to dive into the abyss. But make no mistake, the vultures (bankers, hedge funds, billionaires, etc) will be back when the country is at it weakest and from their lost profits will demand their pound of flesh.
The last blow, and perhaps the hardest:
I’m used to politicising your societies death I did it in the many areas of conflict I was working as a photo-journalist and writer. And I can sense it, feel it: There is so much anger yet to come. I just hope it burns clean. For the sake of my children and grandchildren.
Instead of letters I'm writing this blog
I'm the founder of “tomorrow’s old hat”, this photo-blog, which is a place of many ramblings about photojournalism. If you find something useful on here, it's probably an accident.
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